The Ivory Coast: A case study on climate change and the chocolate we eat

The Ivory Coast has featured prominently in this year’s commodity news with reports of cocoa shipments falling far below levels of previous years. This week, Reuters reported that cocoa port arrivals dropped a dramatic 16% year-on-year since the start of the season last October. A series of recent reports have linked unseasonably dry weather to the sharp decline in grindings and exports. In particular, the Harmattan winds that blow from the Sahara southward across much of West Africa have been unforgiving to this season’s harvest. Industry expectations are for the trend to continue into the next growing season mainly due to low rainfall. Not only have volumes been affected, but quality as well with smaller average bean size and high acidity being reported. As a consequence, exporters have turned away as much as half of arriving volumes. The socioeconomic impact of this damage on the country’s smallholder producers has been extensive.

The Ivorian case is emblematic of supply-side challenges being faced worldwide by the cocoa industry. As the world’s largest producer, what happens in the Ivory Coast will have repercussions felt by chocolate consumers everywhere. This article reviews some of the proximate causes as well as the fundamental driver behind the crisis.

In June, a group of researchers at the International Center for Tropical Agriculture published an article examining the impact of climate change in West Africa’s cocoa belt and the results are cause for dismay. The authors predict both increased precipitation and temperature extremes during the dry season. They identify the forest-savanna transition zone to be the most vulnerable, predicting 87% and 57% drops in suitable growing areas in Nigeria and Ivory Coast, respectively, by 2050.

Relative climatic suitability (in percent) for cocoa of the West Africa cocoa belt

Relative climatic suitability (in percent) for cocoa of the West Africa cocoa belt (Source: CIAT)

Although it is difficult to draw a causal link to climate change, farmers in the Ivory Coast recently reported a mass caterpillar invasion that has affected around 17,000 hectares of growing areas. (Link: video). The extent of the damage and the potential spread of the caterpillar have yet to be fully understood.

Another effect of shifting weather has been the conversion of cocoa acreage to informal mining operations as pits are torn directly into cocoa fields to extract gold. In other cases, cocoa farmers are being drawn from parched farms to the mining regions, leaving trees abandoned.

An informal miner on a cleared plot (Source: AFP)

An informal miner on a cleared plot (Source: AFP)

Against this backdrop, ethnic tensions are simmering as thousands of Ivorian refugees return to their homes only to find the farms occupied by newcomers, often from other regions, in the wake of the country’s 2010 civil war. Many settlers include migrants from neighboring countries that have also been subject to a changing climate. The government’s efforts to adjudicate disputes through the issuance of land title have been woefully inadequate; overall, land tenure remains precarious. In such legal limbo, farmers are understandably reluctant to make needed investments in their orchards.

Displacement and the resulting resource conflicts have manifested themselves in widespread squatting across the country’s remaining protected forests. Experts estimate that the Ivory Coast has lost 80% of its forested area since 1960. Forest clearance continues largely unabated and cocoa farming is pervasive on such plots. Experts believe as much as one third of the country’s cocoa may originate from protected areas.

Burnt cocoa farm in a protected area (Source: Reuters)

Burnt cocoa farm in a protected area (Source: Reuters)

This has pitted human livelihoods against the survival of endangered species, including the pygmy hippopotamus and chimpanzees, endemic to these forests. Taking a more muscular approach, authorities forcibly evicted thousands cocoa farmers from these lands. The removal of over 50,000 people from Mont Peko National Park alone may take 10,000 tons of cocoa off the market in short order and is likely to further inflame tensions. Human rights groups have raised the alarm that the evictions have been linked to the illegal destruction of homes, intimidation, extortion and even murder.

Taken together, these factors paint a picture of long-term secular decline that will not be easily resolved by a year or two of plentiful rainfall. Even more concerning is that these trends are not unique to the Ivory Coast. Recent weather patterns attributed to El Niño have adversely affected production from Brazil to Indonesia. While laudable, private and public sectors efforts to combat the effects of climate change would seem to fall short given the magnitude of the problem.

One of the recommendations posed by the CIAT researchers is the adoption of agroforestry systems: “…in view of the relatively high rainfalls and short dry season in this area, the conditions for managing the projected increase in maximum temperatures through the systematic use of shade are particularly good. Cocoa could be grown here in multi-strata agroforests under a canopy of useful trees creating their own microclimate…” (Source: CIAT) Such systems are effective in buffering temperature extremes, modulating humidity, and reducing erosion caused by heavy rainfall. They are also intensive in their capture of carbon dioxide. While cocoa may be the proverbial canary in the mine, agroforestry systems, including those that produce cocoa, will undoubtedly play a role in any serious response to a changing climate.

Update – 15 Sept. 2016

Today, the Wall St. Journal published an article entitled “Cocoa Production Could Be Devastated by Climate Change, Experts Warn,” drawing attention to the potential impact of climate change on cocoa production worldwide. Genetic diversity and the development of new varieties drawn from a broader gene pool is cited as an important part of the response:

“To make cocoa crops more resilient, the industry needs a greater long-term focus on genetic diversity, which will allow plants to better withstand and adapt to changes in climate, said  Brigitte Laliberté an expert on cocoa genetic resources at Biodiversity International, a global research-for-development organization. Genetic diversity in the West African region is low, she said, and while a focus on better agricultural methods can help yields in the short term, in the long term there must be better research and funding for breeding more resilient varieties, she said.”

The lack of genetic diversity makes African cocoa inherently more vulnerable to pests and disease that can be spawned by changes in humidity and temperature vis-a-vis Latin America cocoa farms whose natural genetic pool is more diverse. This point certainly underscores the importance of avoiding monoculture around a handful of clonal selections; embracing endemic varieties; and employing agroforestry systems to enhance the species’ natural resilience.

Update – 16 Sept. 2016

Outcries have mounted over the government’s handling of the Mont Peko evictions with Human Rights Watch issuing a scathing statement:

“International law protects anyone who occupies land from forced evictions that either do not provide adequate notice or do not respect the dignity and rights of those affected, regardless of whether they occupy the land legally.”

Now homeless, thousands of former squatters have been driven into neighboring villages that lack the resources to accommodate them.

Bloomberg reported today that the impending cocoa shortage is likely to worsen over the remainder of the current season and into the next. By one measure (stockpiles-to-grindings), the market is at its tightest in 30 years with cocoa butter in particularly short supply. The head of Olam International’s cocoa division (the company is the world’s 3rd largest processor) stated:

“The light crop has just been a disaster in Ivory Coast and the Indonesian crop has been much smaller than we thought… We are seeing acute shortages in Asia, acute shortages in America, acute shortages in Africa… You are not really going to catch up with that deficit until the latter part of next year. And for that, you are going to need not only good main crops, but above-normal mid-crops.”

Heading into the peak Halloween and Christmas demand period, it seems likely that the scarcity will be felt by consumers and producers alike.

 

 

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The Final Warning Bell

In Brazil deforestation repesents 70% of the country’s carbon emissions (photo courtesy of the WWF)

The final warning bell has been rung by a UN Climate Change report.  The ongoing destruction of the remaining tropical rain forests and the advance of the pine beetle into the extreme north has contributed to 1/5th of the carbon being delivered into our precious atmosphere, much more than all the motorized vehicles, ships and factories on the planet.  Agriculture is the main polluter and negative factor in this equation.  Here in Guatemala, just to mention an example, at certain times of the year, the burning of the cane fields on the Pacific coast, is enough to darken the sky and cause an ash fall of choking dimensions in nearby communities.

The question is why has forestry not been able to play a more important and sustainable role in mitigating climate change?  One obvious reply is that the global public is kept in the dark by a disinterested media, passive educators and politicians looking only as far as the next vote.

But then what about reforestation companies and the forest investment companies?  Why are they not playing a greater role in the sequestration of carbon and so the salvation of our planet as we know it.  Again the answer is painful:  enormous areas covered by mono-cultures of short term tree crops for mainly pulp or biomass using species (e.g. Pine,Eucaliptus or Melina) that are most often foreign to the tropics with negative effects on the soil.  Sustainable agroforestry is one answer.  India has just passed more progressive legislation that removes many of the bureaucratic restrictions on the planting and use of new forests by farmers,that is expected to increase the forest cover there by millions of hectares.  Both investors, forestry companies and governments need to pay more attention to native forest species for lumber and food while considering the infinite possibilities of sub-canopy planting.

In addition, especially Universities should be playing an important role in environmentally correct reforestation and habitat recovery, but sadly most often their endowment funds invest in mono-cultures and doubtful short term returns, while their scientists preach another story.  It is a dysfunction that every responsible citizen and especially foresters need to urgently correct before we are obligated to send a flotilla of arks to Bangladesh, a country that lies almost entirely at sea level.

– Richard Bronson

Palm monoculture

Palm monoculture in Guatemala

Agrforestry parcel, IAF, Guatemala

 

Real Mitigation

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I recently attended an latin-american expo-conference for the mining industry and its providers.  I was there because one of the company’s I am consulting with has been contracted by an important nickel and gold mining company to manage a few of its environmental restoration projects;  Most countries have laws that stipulate environmental mitigation for damage caused by mining operations.   The quality of compensation varies wildly of course and is too often conducted so as to reach the minimum requirement and with little long-term environmental or social fore-sight.

I took a taxi to the event and when I told the driver where I was going, he chuckled a bit and said verbatim “Oh you’re against the Indians”.  Wow, what a sad perception the mining (& hydroelectric) industry has set for itself.  Not that I was surprised, by simply perusing the web for mining news, there always seems to be an indigenous resistance going on, particularly in the Americas.  As someone with a lifelong affinity for the forest and the people that live in the forest, I am almost unequivocally opposed to mining operations that cross a certain threshold of environmental, and of course social, damage.  However, I understand the need.  I drive a car, I have a mobile phone, those minerals are useful and an essential part of my daily life.  Socially responsible mining, with universally accepted standards, must become the norm.  Since it is difficult to imagine an end to all mining activities I would like to see is a better mechanism for protecting mitigation forests.  Simply plantings a few trees is not enough, there must be a critical discussion made about the cause of deforestation and what we can do to create real, perpetual, environmental compensation.  The problem with reforestation is that if it is done in an area that was once deforested (which is normally the case), it tends to be threatened for the same reasons that it was originally deforested.

In the tropics, reforested areas need value to be conserved, whether through tourism, carbon sequestration, or for timber, (yes timber);  Planted conservation forests (with the exception of National Parks) need to managed and designed by both environmentalists and economists.  My theory is that it is possible to manage and protect a forest through either low-impact harvesting or by allocating a small percentage of that forest to intensive commercial reforestation and logging.  The revenue from either of these can be used to conserve and protect the greater forest, possibly through a foundation.  Ideally, the forest could be even expanded through the acquisition of adjoining lands.  Additionally a system like this could/would create a sustainable source of jobs and income for local communities.

If the mining industry and other environmental offenders can create real mitigation programs that are perpetual and realistic perhaps they can reduce some of the stigma that they have been given.

Indigenous land rights protester

Open pit mining is cheap, productive, and highly damaging to the environment

Embera protesters in Panama